If last year felt like an industry-wide reset, that’s because it was. In 2025, the luxury watch business spent much of its time letting go—of old assumptions,
comfortable growth narratives, and even long-standing retail relationships. Rolex signaled a rare willingness to take bigger technical swings when it introduced
the Land-Dweller and its headline-grabbing new movement, a reminder that even the most conservative giants will innovate when the moment demands it.

At the same time, brands kept tightening their grip on distribution. The multi-brand dealer model has been under pressure for years, but the trend accelerated
as more companies leaned into direct-to-consumer strategies. In practical terms: more brand-owned boutiques, fewer independent accounts, and a growing emphasis
on controlling the full customer experience—from first touch to after-sales service.

Then the macro picture intervened. Inflation anxiety, uneven consumer confidence, and the whiplash of shifting tariff policy cooled demand in the primary market.
The result wasn’t a collapse—but it did puncture the idea that luxury watches were immune to the wider economy. Growth became harder, inventories became more
sensitive, and buyers became more selective.

A New Year, A Different Kind of Stress Test

As the calendar turns to 2026, the industry faces a different set of pressures—and a more kinetic tone. On the horizon are predictable catalysts: the debut releases
slated for LVMH’s Watch Week in Milan later this month and the annual spectacle of Watches and Wonders Geneva in April. But the bigger question is how these launches
land in a market that’s less patient and more fragmented than it was just a few years ago.

One immediate variable is policy: the new 15% tariff on Swiss imports (reduced from 39%) announced in early December changes the pricing math. It’s still a meaningful
headwind, but the reduction matters—especially for brands trying to hold price positioning without spooking buyers. The question isn’t simply “will prices rise?” It’s
whether consumers will accept increases in a year when luxury spending faces stiff competition from something watches can’t replicate: experiences.

Why 2026 Might Feel “Muted” on the Product Side

If you want a useful lens for predicting what we’ll see this year, look back roughly three years. That’s often when the 2026 product pipeline was sketched, engineered,
and approved. Early 2023 was the point when the post-pandemic surge stopped feeling permanent. The glow faded, growth slowed, and the luxury landscape widened:
high-end travel, hospitality, and big-ticket experiences started competing more directly with hard luxuries.

In other words, many brands likely designed this year’s releases in a climate that rewarded caution. That usually translates into incremental change—new dials, new
materials, thoughtful refinements—rather than a flood of radical new platforms. Expect plenty of “freshness” that’s cosmetic and commercial, not necessarily revolutionary.

For brands determined to stand out anyway, the counter-move is obvious: double down on retail theater. That means fewer points of sale, more controlled environments,
and more emphasis on making the purchase feel like an event rather than a transaction. It’s the logic behind the boutique boom—and it’s unlikely to reverse soon.

Milestones That Will Shape the Conversation

Every year comes with anniversaries, but a couple of them will loom especially large in 2026:

• 50 years of the Patek Philippe Nautilus — a milestone that almost guarantees elevated attention, special editions (or strategic restraint), and plenty of market noise regardless of what Patek chooses to do.
• 100 years of Tudor — a centennial that offers enormous storytelling leverage, and a reason to expect well-calibrated releases designed to reinforce Tudor’s modern identity.

Whether these moments produce truly standout watches or simply hype depends on how confident brands feel about demand by spring.

The Pre-Owned Market Keeps Professionalizing

While the primary market has worked through slower demand and pricing sensitivity, the secondary market has continued to mature. Pre-owned is no longer the “shadow”
economy of watch collecting—it’s a parallel marketplace with real infrastructure, real marketing budgets, and increasingly polished customer experiences.

Expect more competition among digitally native platforms aiming for a share of the roughly $30 billion pre-owned opportunity. The winners won’t be the loudest; they’ll
be the ones that solve the unglamorous problems best: authentication, logistics, trade-in liquidity, and buyer trust.

Independents: Still the Most Interesting Plotline

If big brands supply scale, independents supply narrative—and 2026 should keep that pattern intact. F.P. Journe ended 2025 with headline auction results that raise
the classic question: is the brand’s market still climbing, or nearing a peak? We may get new signals in April with the opening of Journe’s museum in Geneva, a move
that’s as much about institutional legacy as it is about product.

Elsewhere, the “independent” universe (used loosely, because corporate ownership lines are blurry) is full of storylines:

• MB&F entering a new phase with a wristwatch designed by Maximilian Maertens, the successor long associated with the brand’s future.
• Breitling’s expected revival of dormant names like Universal Genève and Gallet—projects that can either feel like inspired restoration or cynical nostalgia depending on execution.

So What’s the Base Case?

If you’re hoping for a simple “up” or “down” year, you’ll be disappointed. The most realistic outlook for 2026 is unevenness: some brands will thrive, some will
stumble, and the market will keep shifting under everyone’s feet. Tariffs, retail strategy, and consumer psychology will matter as much as watchmaking itself.

For collectors and observers, that’s not bad news. Volatility produces clarity. It forces brands to justify pricing, sharpen identity, and innovate where it actually counts.
The watch world rarely gives us a fully calm year—and 2026 doesn’t look like it’s going to start now.